Market Outlook 31 Jan

Sorry couldn't post anything last week, got busy in various stuffs.

Fundamental

Fundamentals doesn't look good. Neither for India nor for other countries. India still having higher Inflation (even though growth has slightly come down, kind of like Stagflation situation). Downgrading of Japan by S&P, then US GDP not coming upto the mark and UK GDP contracting for the first time in decades is a lot of bad news to handle.

Technical

To continue discussion, as I had mentioned earlier, market not being able to hold 5700 had a bearish impact and market lost another 200 points (Nifty) and now trading at 5512. Worst part is looking at the charts, the Nifty has broken the lower Donchian Channel and looks to be going down further. FII are still pulling their money out and soon DIIs and Insurance Companies (who by the way have larger stops [or say pain threshold in traders words]) will start selling (and certainly taking some losses.)

Stocks

No stock recommendation till market shows signs of improvement, but I kind of like Titan (since it hasn't shown the weakness seen in the broader market). Most of my positions are now either in Red or at break-even and I think i will also have to join the DII and cause the market to slip further few points. ha ha ha.

Weekly Outlook - 17 Jan

Weekly outlook on market (and some stocks) by aaditya

Fundamentals

The heavy Selling by FII has been a little surprise to me also (apart from DII, brokers and trading community in general). My take on this is that India's credibilty of emerging market (one of the fastest emerging market) has taken a hit. Wall St. and London doesn't want to buy Man Mohan's Singh 9% growth promise. Not being able to contain the Inflation and poor Industrial has made the matters worse.

Technical

Nifty broke the crucial support level of 5700 and also it has broken the low of 11th Nov (5690). Looking at the weekly chart Nifty shows clear downtrend and 5450 seems the likely stop (since it being the area of congestion and previous support and also it being the near to 161.8% Fibonacci Level (5435) of the december rise).

Stocks

BhartiAirtel, forming good ascending triangle and also higher pivot low.

Cairn, has been resistant to recent downtrend and has pulled back from 6 months high. (But if closes below 325, could be moving downwards) Grasim, at the resistant level and has risen to form 3rd higher Pivot low.

*Not many stocks in forray because of Market's bearishness. Specially Banking sector Looking very bad, SBI, HDFC, Axisbank and ICICIbank, all breaking Donchian Lower Channels.