Market Outlook 6 April

Fundamental

Lot of average and good numbers (not best though) are coming out, good IIP numbers (3.7%), Low Inflation (8.82) etc. All these combined with globally good signs of recovery like US Unemployment rate @ 8.8%, Rise in retail Sales volume in Europe and other political movements like Libyan Rebel taking control over areas, Syrian President under pressure etc have contributed in this great Bull Run.

Technical

Market has now made a 10% rise from it's 21-Mar low, and the current level falls exactly on the trendline (trending downwards) connecting highs of Nov and Jan. These all suggest an inevitable retracement/halt/pullback/breather (whatever you may like to call). Swing Traders should book some profit while medium/long term players should hold, as this run isn't over yet. Retracement upto 5700 shouldn't raise any eyebrows, anything below that will be signs of warning though.

Stocks

These are the times where buying any stock will not make a difference. Still I would suggest to have look on stocks which are laggers in their sectors like Tech Mahindra, Dharampur Sugar, Ramco India (cement), Cannara Bank as potential buy. I would personally not buy anything if I see retracement starting tommorrow.

Food for Thought

There are Old Traders and There are Bold Traders, there are no Old Bold traders.

Market Outlook 28 March

Fundamental

Since I started this blog, I had always been bearish or neutral but Now I say it full on Bullish. Though fundamentally nothing good has occurred but all bad news are settling down. Economic growth looks on track and most importantly expectation of earnings this quarter is very high. Globally still libya is in trouble, so is Syria. Japan is recuperating and Portugal looks in deep financial crisis.

Technical

Market had an excellent week with 5% gain. It has managed to break the psychological level (5600), pSAR (5589) and donchian channel (5608). MACD has turned up so has RSI and MFI. In simple words all indications that this may be the start of intermediate bull run. We may not run upto Nov 2010 highs (6300), but 5800 to 5900 certainly looks on cards.

Stocks

It is time to put your money from bank to stock market. Some of the stocks which look good to me are : Allahabad Bank , HDFC bank (all banks are good), Ashok leyland, DLF, Grasim, Kirloskar Oil, Sobha Developers and SAIL.

Market Outlook 21 March

Fundamental

Devastation in Japan, Libyan Crisis, Uprising in Bahrain, rising Crude Oil, etc so many negative news around the world is certainly causing the pessimism in the market. RBI by hiking the rates by 25 bp didn't help the matter (since inflation had come down, there was no need for this hike). "Money for Votes" scam is another factor which has added to the long list of corruption list and certainly dampening the investors (esp: FII's) mood.

Technical

Looking at the charts, Nifty hasn't been direction less for so long in few months now. Overlapping and small body candles are enough to tell us that bulls n bears are without any heed. Last friday's drop (~2%) has bought Nifty to kiss the SAR and also 10 period donchian low. Any downwards movement from here could signal another downturn (we are already in a medium term downtrend).

Stocks

My advise, stay away from new investment. (things in Libya could get ugly). If you have to, I like the way ACC and Reliance Capital are behaving (strictly technial).

Market Outlook 3 March (Budget Special)

*Waited a week for budgets to come out to write the update as market was directionless before.

Fundamental

Well, Well the budget blew us all, in specific the markets. It is not that much of a positive one, but since none of the figures (like Current account deficit improving, GDP numbers solid, Inflation coming down) showed any pessimism (which was the fear since last quarter). Market can move few hundred (Nifty) points more on this budget euphoria. Around the globe it has been mixed, while Canada's and Australia's GDP grew higher, US isn't doing great (poor Home Sales and Jobless claim numbers). Situation on Libya still remain's anyone's guess.

Technical

Market after 3.5% jump on day after budget is now closer to its swing high and a resistance zone of 5600, which also is 50MA. So until market comfortably closes above 5600 we can't be sure of an uptrend. Though fundamentally it sounds that it should see some upside but one bad news and we could see the double top and bounce back to 5200. Parabolic SAR is still negative and MACD is still below zero.

Stocks

Though market now seems to be starting an uptrend but due to resistance at 5600 lets wait till this is broken. So no buy till then. Still if we have to look then IDBI, Cairn and ITC (after some pullback) looks good. It could also be time to start looking at midcaps like CESC and JSWSteel (both just broke the channel and are at Donchian upper channel)

Market Outlook 14th Feb

Fundamental

India's growth seems to be slowing down. IIP numbers came out (1.6%), which is much below the expected figure. It seems 7 consecutive Interest Rate hikes has started toll on growth. More scams, more money laundering and no growth, seems India is not shinning. Other places, it's great. US jobs data came very well, even Europe is showing signs of strenght. Japan is at high and Indonesia is shinning too.

Technical

Though I had thought market would consolidate, but break of 5,350 (Nifty) level, spiraled the Market down to 5177, but Market recovered some of the loss on Friday (1.6% Up). There are no signs of immediate recovery, atleast market could hold these level and at best move up till 5561 (Fib level:38.2% of recent fall). Some sectors are exclusively doing well (Auto, Pharma, Cement) so Bull vs Bear fight could be evident.

Stocks

Though I am still cautious on buying new stocks. Those looking for cheap stocks (value buying), could look into LT (since its fundamentals are v.good), TCS (avoid Infosys & Wipro), Biocon, Cairn look good.

Market Outlook 7th Feb

Fundamental

Food inflation data came out and it doesn't look good, still at 17.05%. This will lead to further rate cutes and ultimately curbing of growth. Not good for stock market (more FII withdrawal, and scared to enter again). Unrest in Egypt didn't help, it is causing more insecurity (It's time Mubarak cared about the country and stepped down).

Technical

Nifty looked to have finally started some rally (or retracement if you will), but carnage on Friday sell-off bought it back to the lows of the week. But the downside momentum looks to be coming to halt. This certainly doesn't mean market will move up but we can see sideways movement from here.

Stocks

Still not good time to buy stocks, it is better to give away few gains and be sure that further downside is curtailed than to take the risk of bottom fishing. Anyways is I like Visasteel and National Aluminium. Also since results of andhrabank were good, fundamentally it looks to be a good buy (and certainly at low P/E ratio).

Market Outlook 31 Jan

Sorry couldn't post anything last week, got busy in various stuffs.

Fundamental

Fundamentals doesn't look good. Neither for India nor for other countries. India still having higher Inflation (even though growth has slightly come down, kind of like Stagflation situation). Downgrading of Japan by S&P, then US GDP not coming upto the mark and UK GDP contracting for the first time in decades is a lot of bad news to handle.

Technical

To continue discussion, as I had mentioned earlier, market not being able to hold 5700 had a bearish impact and market lost another 200 points (Nifty) and now trading at 5512. Worst part is looking at the charts, the Nifty has broken the lower Donchian Channel and looks to be going down further. FII are still pulling their money out and soon DIIs and Insurance Companies (who by the way have larger stops [or say pain threshold in traders words]) will start selling (and certainly taking some losses.)

Stocks

No stock recommendation till market shows signs of improvement, but I kind of like Titan (since it hasn't shown the weakness seen in the broader market). Most of my positions are now either in Red or at break-even and I think i will also have to join the DII and cause the market to slip further few points. ha ha ha.

Weekly Outlook - 17 Jan

Weekly outlook on market (and some stocks) by aaditya

Fundamentals

The heavy Selling by FII has been a little surprise to me also (apart from DII, brokers and trading community in general). My take on this is that India's credibilty of emerging market (one of the fastest emerging market) has taken a hit. Wall St. and London doesn't want to buy Man Mohan's Singh 9% growth promise. Not being able to contain the Inflation and poor Industrial has made the matters worse.

Technical

Nifty broke the crucial support level of 5700 and also it has broken the low of 11th Nov (5690). Looking at the weekly chart Nifty shows clear downtrend and 5450 seems the likely stop (since it being the area of congestion and previous support and also it being the near to 161.8% Fibonacci Level (5435) of the december rise).

Stocks

BhartiAirtel, forming good ascending triangle and also higher pivot low.

Cairn, has been resistant to recent downtrend and has pulled back from 6 months high. (But if closes below 325, could be moving downwards) Grasim, at the resistant level and has risen to form 3rd higher Pivot low.

*Not many stocks in forray because of Market's bearishness. Specially Banking sector Looking very bad, SBI, HDFC, Axisbank and ICICIbank, all breaking Donchian Lower Channels.