Market Outlook 3 March (Budget Special)

*Waited a week for budgets to come out to write the update as market was directionless before.

Fundamental

Well, Well the budget blew us all, in specific the markets. It is not that much of a positive one, but since none of the figures (like Current account deficit improving, GDP numbers solid, Inflation coming down) showed any pessimism (which was the fear since last quarter). Market can move few hundred (Nifty) points more on this budget euphoria. Around the globe it has been mixed, while Canada's and Australia's GDP grew higher, US isn't doing great (poor Home Sales and Jobless claim numbers). Situation on Libya still remain's anyone's guess.

Technical

Market after 3.5% jump on day after budget is now closer to its swing high and a resistance zone of 5600, which also is 50MA. So until market comfortably closes above 5600 we can't be sure of an uptrend. Though fundamentally it sounds that it should see some upside but one bad news and we could see the double top and bounce back to 5200. Parabolic SAR is still negative and MACD is still below zero.

Stocks

Though market now seems to be starting an uptrend but due to resistance at 5600 lets wait till this is broken. So no buy till then. Still if we have to look then IDBI, Cairn and ITC (after some pullback) looks good. It could also be time to start looking at midcaps like CESC and JSWSteel (both just broke the channel and are at Donchian upper channel)