Market Outlook 28 March

Fundamental

Since I started this blog, I had always been bearish or neutral but Now I say it full on Bullish. Though fundamentally nothing good has occurred but all bad news are settling down. Economic growth looks on track and most importantly expectation of earnings this quarter is very high. Globally still libya is in trouble, so is Syria. Japan is recuperating and Portugal looks in deep financial crisis.

Technical

Market had an excellent week with 5% gain. It has managed to break the psychological level (5600), pSAR (5589) and donchian channel (5608). MACD has turned up so has RSI and MFI. In simple words all indications that this may be the start of intermediate bull run. We may not run upto Nov 2010 highs (6300), but 5800 to 5900 certainly looks on cards.

Stocks

It is time to put your money from bank to stock market. Some of the stocks which look good to me are : Allahabad Bank , HDFC bank (all banks are good), Ashok leyland, DLF, Grasim, Kirloskar Oil, Sobha Developers and SAIL.

Market Outlook 21 March

Fundamental

Devastation in Japan, Libyan Crisis, Uprising in Bahrain, rising Crude Oil, etc so many negative news around the world is certainly causing the pessimism in the market. RBI by hiking the rates by 25 bp didn't help the matter (since inflation had come down, there was no need for this hike). "Money for Votes" scam is another factor which has added to the long list of corruption list and certainly dampening the investors (esp: FII's) mood.

Technical

Looking at the charts, Nifty hasn't been direction less for so long in few months now. Overlapping and small body candles are enough to tell us that bulls n bears are without any heed. Last friday's drop (~2%) has bought Nifty to kiss the SAR and also 10 period donchian low. Any downwards movement from here could signal another downturn (we are already in a medium term downtrend).

Stocks

My advise, stay away from new investment. (things in Libya could get ugly). If you have to, I like the way ACC and Reliance Capital are behaving (strictly technial).

Market Outlook 3 March (Budget Special)

*Waited a week for budgets to come out to write the update as market was directionless before.

Fundamental

Well, Well the budget blew us all, in specific the markets. It is not that much of a positive one, but since none of the figures (like Current account deficit improving, GDP numbers solid, Inflation coming down) showed any pessimism (which was the fear since last quarter). Market can move few hundred (Nifty) points more on this budget euphoria. Around the globe it has been mixed, while Canada's and Australia's GDP grew higher, US isn't doing great (poor Home Sales and Jobless claim numbers). Situation on Libya still remain's anyone's guess.

Technical

Market after 3.5% jump on day after budget is now closer to its swing high and a resistance zone of 5600, which also is 50MA. So until market comfortably closes above 5600 we can't be sure of an uptrend. Though fundamentally it sounds that it should see some upside but one bad news and we could see the double top and bounce back to 5200. Parabolic SAR is still negative and MACD is still below zero.

Stocks

Though market now seems to be starting an uptrend but due to resistance at 5600 lets wait till this is broken. So no buy till then. Still if we have to look then IDBI, Cairn and ITC (after some pullback) looks good. It could also be time to start looking at midcaps like CESC and JSWSteel (both just broke the channel and are at Donchian upper channel)